Research on the role of cross-border trade in the economic growth of border regions of Central Asia

The aim of this study was to determine how trade flows and integration processes influenced the socio- economic development of the border regions of Central Asia. The methodology was based on the analysis of official statistics and the application of a correlation approach to identify dependencies between investments and export flows. The results of the study demonstrated that trade between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan remained structurally asymmetric: in 2019, Kyrgyzstan’s exports amounted to 327 million USD, and by 2023-2024 they had increased to 559 million USD, yet imports from Kazakhstan were considerably higher, generating a persistent deficit. Kazakhstan’s exports comprised grain and flour (in 2023 alone – 40.4 thousand tonnes of grain and 53.2 thousand tonnes of flour), gold, tobacco products and mineral waters, while more than 90% of Kyrgyz exports consisted of precious metal ores and petroleum products. In the Talas region, investments rose from USD 36.6 million in 2020 to USD 127.9 million in 2022, before declining to USD 107.1 million in 2024. Correlation analysis confirmed a strong relationship between investment activity and exports (coefficient 0.84). In the Zhetysu region of Kazakhstan, in 2024, gross regional product increased by 5.6%, investments reached USD 641.4 million, and foreign trade turnover approached USD 3 billion, accompanied by a low unemployment rate of 4.7%. The findings could be applied by state authorities, regional administrations and international organisations in designing strategies aimed at enhancing the efficiency of cross-border trade and investment policy