Estimating and Projecting Forest Biomass Energy Potential in China: A Panel and Random Forest Analysis

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of forest biomass energy potential is essential for supporting low-carbon land-use planning and regional energy transitions. China, characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity in forest resources and ecological conditions, provides an ideal case for examining how biophysical endowments and management factors shape biomass energy potential. This study constructs a province-level panel dataset for China covering the period from 1998 to 2018 and investigates long-term spatial patterns, regional disparities, and driving mechanisms using spatial visualization, Dagum Gini decomposition, and fixed-effects estimation. The results reveal a gradual spatial reorganization of forest biomass energy potential, with the national center of gravity shifting westward and northwestward, alongside a moderate dispersion of high-potential clusters from coastal areas toward the interior. Interregional transvariation is identified as the dominant source of regional inequality, indicating persistent structural differences among major regions. To explore future dynamics, a random forest model is employed to project provincial forest biomass energy potential from 2018 to 2028. The projections suggest moderate overall growth, smoother distributional structures, and a partial reduction in extreme provincial disparities. Central, southwestern, and northwestern provinces are expected to emerge as important contributors to future growth, reflecting ecological restoration efforts, expanding plantation forests, and improved forest management. The findings highlight a continued upward trend in national forest biomass energy potential, accompanied by a spatial shift toward inland regions and evolving regional disparities. This study provides empirical evidence to support region-specific development strategies, optimized spatial allocation of forest biomass resources, and integrated policies linking ecological sustainability with renewable energy development.