Linking complex microbial interactions and dysbiosis through a disordered Lotka–Volterra model

The rapid advancement of environmental sequencing technologies, such as metagenomics, has significantly enhanced our ability to study microbial communities. The eubiotic composition of these communities is crucial for maintaining ecological functions and host health. Species diversity is only one facet of a healthy community’s organization; together with abundance distributions and interaction structures, it shapes reproducible macroecological states, that is, joint statistical fingerprints that summarize whole-community behavior. Despite recent developments, a theoretical framework connecting empirical data with ecosystem modeling is still in its infancy, particularly in the context of disordered systems. Here, we present a novel framework that couples statistical physics tools for disordered systems with metagenomic data, explicitly linking diversity, interactions, and stability to define and compare these macroecological states. By employing the generalized Lotka–Volterra model with random interactions, we reveal two different emergent patterns of species interaction networks and species abundance distributions for healthy and diseased microbiomes. On the one hand, healthy microbiomes have similar community structures across individuals, characterized by strong species interactions and abundance diversity consistent with neutral stochastic fluctuations. On the other hand, diseased microbiomes show greater variability driven by deterministic factors, thus resulting in less ecologically stable and more divergent communities. Our findings suggest the potential of disordered system theory to characterize microbiomes and to capture the role of ecological interactions on stability and functioning.