Forecasting the labor force of climate technology sectors in Korea (2022–2032) by analyzing the survey of climate technology research and development

Climate technology contributes to attaining international and domestic goals of responding to global climate change, and generating expansive demand for labor. A detailed forecast of labor force of climate technology sectors is essential to establish relevant policies and programs, considering expected shortage of labor force and sector-specific factors. Unfortunately, there is a lack of comprehensive forecast on labor force in these sectors in the Republic of Korea. This study aims to provide a forecast of labor force in 22 climate technology sectors by utilizing climate-technology-specific data. Estimation of annual change in revenue and non-linear regression analysis on relationship between revenue and labor force were conducted. Results indicate that total labor force in climate technology sectors would grow from 283,581 in 2022 to 402,368 in 2032, with an annual average increase of 3.6%. Particularly, mitigation-related sectors showed higher rates of labor force growth (e.g., power generation efficiency (+8.5%), solar energy (+7.8%)). Adaptation-related sectors like water and agriculture are also expected to expand modestly. In contrast, most adaptation-related sectors and some mitigation-related sectors (e.g., greenhouse gas storage·absorption·utilization, hydrogen-ammonia power generation) showed potential declines. Consequently, three policy implications were provided with consideration of the results of the forecast on labor force and the ratio of technician to researcher. This study is expected to be one of the reference findings for integrating labor market forecasting into national climate technology and green industry policies.