Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally

Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-01-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
33.49

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article

Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally

Lyanne Brouwer, Corey E. Tarwater, Chloé R. Nater, Liam D. Bailey et al.
1 citations
Nature Communications
Species Distribution and Climate Change
33.49
article

Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally

Lyanne Brouwer, Corey E. Tarwater, Chloé R. Nater, Liam D. Bailey, Guillaume Chero, André Chiaradia, Dietrich von Holst, Katharine Keogan, Dominique Fauteux, Karl S. Berg, Sergio Luque Ancona, Bernt-Erik Sæther, Nina McLean, José P. Granadeiro, Sandra Bouwhuis, Paulo Catry, Dominique Berteaux, Ray I Alisauskas, Giacomo Tavecchia, Deseada Parejo, Jonas Hentati-Sundberg, Hugh M. Drummond, Tapio Eeva, Ulrich Brose, Sue Lewis, Ana Sanz-Aguilar, Francis Daunt, Daniel Oro, Tycho Anker-Nilssen, Santiago Ortega, Martijn van de Pol, Steven R. Beissinger, F. Stephen Dobson, José Manuel Igual, Tomas Pärt, Carys V. Jones, Daniel T. Blumstein, Alexandre Courtiol, Stephanie Jenouvrier, Karine Delord, Stephanie Kramer-Schadt, Anders Pape Møller, Holger Schielzeth, Ben C. Sheldon, Lise M. Aubry, Viktoriia Radchuk, Peter Arcese, Gilles Gauthier, Mark Newell, Carsten Schradin, Michael Harris, Nathaniel Wheelwright, Julien Martin, Julia Schroeder, Andrew G. Wood, Mark Mallory, Jean-Baptiste Mihoub, Debora Arlt, Marcel E. Visser, Ana Payo-Payo, Josephine Pemberton, Heiko G. Rödel, Manuel Massot, Jean Clobert, Sarah Wanless, Anne Charmantier, Fredric Janzen, Erik Matthysen, Steffen Oppel, Neville Pillay, Richard A. Phillips, Jesús M. Avilés, Céline Teplitsky, Stefan J. G. Vriend, Christophe Barbraud, Thomas E. Reed, Vebjørn Veiberg, Erkki Korpimäki, Vincent A. Viblanc, Loeske E. B. Kruuk, Claire Saraux, Meritxell Genovart
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 17(1)
Université Paris-Sud (FR), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (ES), University of Wyoming (US), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Michigan Department of Natural Resources (US), British Antarctic Survey (GB), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (GB), Bowdoin College (US), University of Lisbon (PT), Natural Environment Research Council (GB), University of British Columbia (CA), University of Antwerp (BE), University of Ottawa (CA), University of Turku (FI), École Pratique des Hautes Études (FR), University of California, Los Angeles (US), Université du Québec à Rimouski (CA), University of the Witwatersrand (ZA), Université de Montpellier (FR), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO), University of Exeter (GB), Edinburgh Napier University (GB), University College Cork (IE), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), Parks Victoria (AU), Swiss Ornithological Institute (CH), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE), Australian Government (AU), The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (US), Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (US), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SE), Sorbonne Université (FR), University of Oxford (GB), Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive (FR), Université Sorbonne Paris Nord (FR), Ecologie, Société, Evolution (FR), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé (FR), Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (FR), Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes (ES), Estacion Experimental de Zonas Aridas (ES), Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NL), Center for Northern Studies (CA), Canadian Museum of Nature (CA), Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (ES), Aquatic Systems (United States) (US), Laboratoire d’Ethologie Expérimentale et Comparée (FR), Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement de Paris (FR), Centro de Implantología Cirugía Oral y Maxilofacial (ES), Institute of Avian Research (DE), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO), Instituto de Ecología (MX), Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (DE), Station d’Écologie Théorique et Expérimentale (FR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Technische Universität Berlin (DE), Imperial College London (GB), Universitat de les Illes Balears (ES), University of Bayreuth (DE), Monash University (AU), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US), Université de Strasbourg (FR), Friedrich Schiller University Jena (DE), Auburn University (US), James Cook University (AU), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX), Colorado State University (US), Acadia University (CA), Ottawa University (US), University of California, Berkeley (US), University of Edinburgh (GB)
National Science Foundation, National Geographic Society, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Vetenskapsrådet, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Norges Forskningsråd, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Ciências do Mar, Deutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Natural Environment Research Council
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
33.49
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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