International Seaborne Trade and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981 – 2023)

The empirical study investigated the effect of international seaborne trade on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2023. The study employed real gross domestic product (RGDP) as the dependent variable, with oil exports (OEXP), non-oil exports (NOEXP), refined oil imports (ROIMP), and non-oil imports (NOIMP) as explanatory variables. Annual time series data were obtained from the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The econometric methodology adopted by the study included the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the ARDL bounds cointegration approach, and short- and long-run estimations. The unit root results revealed a mixed order of integration I(0) and I(1), justifying the use of ARDL bounds testing, which confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Results showed that oil exports exerted a positive and statistically significant effect on RGDP in both the short and long run, while non-oil exports also had a strong positive and significant effect in both the short and long run, underscoring the importance of export diversification. Conversely, refined oil imports negatively and significantly influenced RGDP in both the short and long run. Non-oil imports exhibited a statistically insignificant effect on RGDP in both the short and long run. The study concluded that international seaborne trade remains a critical driver of Nigeria’s economic growth.