Trusting during the pandemic: the effect of political, social and scientific trust on COVID-19 mortality across Europe

Introduction This study examines how different forms of trust shaped COVID-19 mortality across European countries, treating the pandemic as a collective action problem where compliance with public health measures was crucial. While trust is often discussed as a uniform resource, less attention has been paid to how social trust, political trust, and trust in scientists may have divergent effects on pandemic outcomes. Methods Using data from the European Social Survey Round 10 combined with national-level indicators, we construct a cross-national dataset covering 30 European countries. We estimate multivariable regression models linking three trust dimensions to COVID-19 deaths per million, while controlling for economic, demographic and health-system factors such as gross national income per capita, median age, hospital beds per capita, and urbanization. Results The analysis shows that higher political trust and higher trust in scientists are strongly associated with lower COVID-19 mortality, indicating that confidence in institutions and expert knowledge supports compliance and effective policy implementation. By contrast, elevated social trust is positively associated with mortality, suggesting that, in high-trust environments, individuals may underestimate risk, relax precautionary behaviours, and engage in subtle forms of noncompliance. Discussion These findings highlight the complex and context-dependent role of trust during health crises, demonstrating that not all trust is uniformly protective. While institutional and scientific trust appear to foster collective action and reduce deaths, generalized social trust can, under certain conditions, increase vulnerability, offering policy-relevant insights for crisis communication and the design of public health interventions in Europe.