Projections of Precipitation and Temperature Changes and Trends Using <scp>CMIP6</scp> Global Climate Models in the Eastern Amhara, Northeastern, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. It severely affects many developing countries whose economy depends on climate‐sensitive sectors with low adaptive capacity. Studies in northeastern Ethiopia have not addressed the future climate conditions well, using the recently released CMIP6 global climate models. This study focused on projections of precipitation and temperature changes and trends using CMIP6 GCMs in the eastern Amhara, Northeastern, Ethiopia. The gridded temperature and precipitation data were extracted from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU TS4.07) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCCv2020) for 1984–2014, respectively. The historical and projected data were retrieved from the Earth Systems Grid Federation (ESGF). The projections were computed under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios for two future periods: 2040s (2030–2060) and 2080s (2070–2100). The modified Mann–Kendall's test and Sen's slope were used to detect precipitation and temperature trends. The annual and seasonal projected precipitation and temperature results showed significant increasing trends at a 5% probability level. The annual precipitation will increase by 7.77% and 13.74% under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario and by 14.02% and 28.48% under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario for the 2040s and 2080s, respectively. The annual maximum temperature will increase by 0.92°C and 1.86°C under SSP2‐4.5 and by 1.25°C and 3.39°C under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. Likewise, the annual minimum temperature will increase by 1.62°C and 1.97°C in the 2040s and by 2.56°C and 4.48°C in the 2080s under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Regarding spatial distribution, the most significant precipitation and temperature changes are projected in the west and central parts of the study area. Increasing precipitation trends and temperature changes are projected under both scenarios and periods. Thus, an analysis of the impacts of climate change and the design of solutions would be very relevant.