Geoeconomic Strategies of Hungary, Serbia and Italy: A Strategic Threat to the Republic of Croatia

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the Budapest–Belgrade–Rome axis: Geoeconomic pincers aimed at Croatia. The energy condominium formed by Hungary and Serbia has solidified its cooperation in 2025. The objective of this partnership is the construction of a parallel energy corridor that bypasses or marginalizes Croatian influence in the Balkans. Joint investments in oil and gas pipelines, which connect Hungarian refining power with the Serbian market, strategically diminish the importance of the Croatian oil transport company JANAF as Croatia's key strategic lever. Furthermore, the strategic alliance between Italy and Hungary, underpinned by the ideological and economic alignment of the governments in Rome and Budapest, serves as a reason for increased caution in Zagreb. In 2025, Italy utilizes Hungarian support to bolster its influence in the Northern Adriatic (Trieste vs. Rijeka). The Hungarian terminal in Trieste, backed by the Italian government, directly drains cargo and investment from the Port of Rijeka. Croatia is losing this race due to a lack of response to the combined Italian-Hungarian capital. This paper demonstrates that Croatia is not a victim of mere market competition, but rather of an Asymmetric Geo-economic Encirclement, where neighboring states weaponize infrastructure to marginalize Croatian sovereignty.