Impact of delayed wind power development on achieving the 2030 power sector greenhouse gas emissions target

South Korea aims to achieve 21.8% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030, targeting the installation of 18 GW of wind capacity. However, the development of wind energy has been hindered by a complex permitting process, high investment costs, and challenges related to grid interconnection. This study explores the impact of delayed wind energy deployment on achieving the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target and assesses its potential effects on power markets and carbon pricing within the Emissions Trading System. Utilizing the UNICON-K-Power model, we analyzed three renewable scenarios (planned wind, delayed wind, and delayed wind with additional solar) under two fuel price conditions (high and low). The findings suggest that South Korea could still meet its 2030 NDC target by increasing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) usage for electricity generation, even with a wind energy shortfall. However, this approach could lead to higher fuel and carbon allowance costs, ultimately raising electricity bills through 2030. In the event of wind energy deployment delays, adding 5 GW of solar capacity beyond the planned 2030 levels could mitigate negative impacts on electricity and carbon prices, provided solar energy costs decline as assumed. The results indicate that using LNG generation to compensate for wind energy shortages is less cost-effective than utilizing solar energy. Consequently, policymakers should explore a balanced combination of wind and solar energy development to minimize the economic impact of high carbon and energy prices and to achieve the 2030 NDC mitigation target.