A process-oriented framework to decipher drought propagation dynamics from meteorological to ecological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought in the Yellow River Basin

Transitioning from passive drought control to active risk management requires a systematic understanding of drought propagation beyond conventional short chains. This study established a novel framework to characterize high-resolution, cascading drought dynamics across meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, ecological, and socioeconomic dimensions in the drought-prone Yellow River Basin. By integrating SWAT and AquaCrop simulations with electrical network-inspired “series–parallel–hybrid” theory, we identified dominant propagation pathways and thresholds across 403 sub-basins. Results revealed distinct spatiotemporal groupings where meteorological–ecological and meteorological–agricultural droughts shared similar propagation times, as did meteorological–socioeconomic and meteorological–hydrological droughts. Meanwhile, when ecological drought of varying severity occurred in phase 1, the cascade consistently progressed from meteorological to ecological, then to agricultural, further to hydrological, and ultimately to socioeconomic drought. Series and hybrid modes dominated drought propagation pathways, with series propagation increasing under intensified meteorological drought. As drought severity rose, propagation thresholds declined while exhibiting clear spatial clustering patterns. Driving force analysis indicated that dynamic cumulative processes rely more on environmental drivers than static threshold conditions. This study fills a critical gap in long-chain drought propagation research and supports the development of cascade-based early warning and targeted regulation systems.