Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis

The study is dedicated to analyzing the dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential under the intensification of agricultural production. The aim of the study is to investigate changes in agricultural potential, identify latent variables determining its transformation, and develop a composite index reflecting the level and trends in the development of the country’s agro-industrial complex (AIC). The research is based on the analysis of official statistics (data from Rosstat and the World Bank) characterizing the indicators of Russia's AIC from 2000 to 2023. The average annual growth rate of grain yield amounted to 3.2%, reaching 3,428.7 kg/ha by 2023, while fertilizer consumption increased from 11 kg/ha to 25.3 kg/ha. The share of agriculture in GDP decreased from 5.88% to 4.02%, indicating structural changes in the sector and adaptation to macroeconomic conditions. The methodological framework of the study includes regression modeling (including Lasso and Ridge regressions), factor analysis, statistical methods of correlation analysis, and the construction of composite indices. The results identified that the key factors influencing agricultural efficiency include the area of arable land, irrigated land area, fertilizer consumption, and the volume of grain production. The composite index of agricultural potential, calculated based on weighted indicators, increased from 0.31 to 0.67 over the analyzed period. Factor analysis highlighted latent variables explaining over 94% of data variability: the first factor reflects the impact of resource use intensity, the second characterizes production capabilities, and the third reflects macroeconomic conditions. The obtained results can be used to shape policies aimed at enhancing the efficiency of agricultural resource utilization, develop programs to stimulate producers, and outline development trajectories for the agricultural sector.