Evolution of Spatial Proportions of Russia’s Development: Expectations and Reality

This paper examines the spatial proportions of economic development in Russia for the period from 1995 to 2024, and it compares the predictions made in the literature regarding their changes and the actual picture. The information basis for the empirical analysis is official sources from Rosstat; data on population, employment, gross regional product, industrial production, and investment in fixed capital are used as characteristics of economic activity. The geographical units of analysis are federal districts and subjects of the Russian Federation. Several directions of spatial shifts are studied: east-to-west, European center–other territories, and extractive–manufacturing regions. The methods of analysis are descriptive statistics and the Theil index. Assessments have shown that Russia is experiencing persistent trends in shifting spatial proportions of economic development: toward the European center, from east to west, and from resource-rich to manufacturing regions. These directions of spatial evolution correspond to the vectors that shape market mechanisms and were predicted at the beginning of market reforms in the country, but their dynamics did not meet expectations. The low rate of transformation of the spatial structure is explained by the theories of geographical and historical determinism. The high inertia of spatial proportions of business activity reduces the effectiveness of federal government initiatives in recent years aimed at changing emerging trends and launching an eastern vector of development. Under these conditions, the steps taken by central governmental bodies and the financial and material resources that are allocated, as well as institutional support, are insufficient to address the issue of accelerated development of the eastern regions of the country.