Exploring Habitat Preferences, Suitability, and Illegal Trade Routes of Indian Pangolins in Western Pakistan: Implications for Conservation

The Indian pangolin (<i>Manis crassicaudata</i>; Manidae, Pholidota), a species categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, is one of nine extant pangolin species in Asia. This study investigated habitat preference, habitat suitability, and illegal trade routes of the Indian pangolin in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Habitat preference was determined by analyzing the distribution and density of pangolin signs across various land cover types. Habitat suitability for the species was assessed using the MaxEnt modeling approach and field data. Trade routes were identified using information from hunters, poachers, dealers, and local communities to understand the threats related to illegal wildlife trafficking. Results indicated significant differences in burrow distributions across habitats (<i>χ</i> ² = 17.756, df = 6, <i>p</i> < 0.01), which suggest ecological preferences and adaptations. We complemented MaxEnt with Random Forest and Support Vector Machine models trained with the same predictors and spatial folds to validate robustness and characterize non-linear effects. Across held-out folds, SVM performed best, with RF and MaxEnt yielding comparable but lower discrimination; a TSS-weighted ensemble provided a stable consensus SVM (mean AUC ≈ 0.61; TSS ≈ 0.33). Variable-importance and partial-dependence analyses consistently highlighted Elevation, NDMI, and NDWI as influential predictors. Several routes used for the illegal trade of Indian pangolin scales and whole animals were identified. The study also highlights the ongoing issues of illegal poaching and habitat intrusion, worsened by low local awareness and inadequate enforcement. The findings support a comprehensive conservation strategy that includes strict enforcement of wildlife protection laws, increased penalties for poaching, community-based monitoring through targeted awareness campaigns, local wildlife patrols, and ongoing scientific research to support habitat restoration, adaptive management, and evidence-based policy development. Community-based conservation initiatives and improved wildlife law enforcement at key trafficking hubs could significantly reduce poaching pressure.