Decoupling from land: Shifting determinants of direct ecosystem services use in China

Identifying how and to what extent humans directly use ecosystem services (ES) to meet basic needs remains a critical challenge. Understanding the key drivers of ES use is essential for formulating effective intervention strategies. However, due to the static or localized focus of existing studies, the spatiotemporal dynamics of the drivers shaping human ES use remain poorly understood. To address this, we integrated long-term national census data to conduct one of the first comprehensive and spatially explicit analyses of direct ES use across prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2020. We further applied principal component analysis, ordinary least squares regression, and multiscale geographically weighted regression to uncover the evolving influences on direct ES use. Our findings reveal that: (1) the average proportion of people or households directly relying on ES in 2020 was 11.64 % (cooking), 23.44 % (working), 9.67 % (drinking), and 0.94 % (housing), with total direct ES use decreasing by 20 % from 2000 to 2010 and by nearly 60 % from 2010 to 2020; (2) while land resources were positively associated with ES use in 2000 and 2010, this relationship weakened by 2020; (3) economic development consistently exerted a strong negative impact on direct ES use, while demographic structure emerged as an increasingly important factor, with its effects expanding by 2020; and (4) higher levels of direct ES use were associated with lower sustainability outcomes. These findings suggest that land availability is no longer a dominant predictor of ES dependence, highlighting the need for traditional, resource-centric management approaches to adapt to shifting socioecononic dynamics. • Direct use of ecosystem services (ES) in Chinese cities plummeted substantially from 2000 to 2020. • Economic development exerted a consistently negative impact on ES use. • The positive impact of land resources on direct ES use weakened over time. • Demographic structure has emerged as an increasingly important predictor of direct ES use. • Place-based and adaptive governance is essential for sustainable ES management.