Taking Armed Group Fragmentation Seriously in Multilateral Interventions

ABSTRACT: This briefing examines how multilateral actors, such as the UN, may inadvertently exacerbate insurgent fragmentation during mediation. It suggests that international constraints shape how mediators operate, sometimes fueling divisions within insurgent groups. By treating insurgent fragmentation as a key measure of mediation success—not just conflict duration or recurrence—the briefing challenges the view that fragmentation is solely an internal problem of armed groups. To promote lasting peace and stability, this briefing draws attention to the external role that multilateral mediators play in fueling fragmentation and offers policy recommendations to improve mediation practices and peace agreement implementation.