Using a return on investment analysis to estimate the economic impact of potential changes to alcohol control policies in Estonia

Estonia is planning an update of its national alcohol policies where an economic return on investment (ROI) analysis is needed to guide decisions against their monetary returns. Using mostly national data sources, the ROI analysis was based on direct healthcare costs and productivity losses due to premature mortality. The interventions compared comprised availability restrictions and taxation increases. For taxation increases, associated revenue increases to government were included. All analyses used a one-year time horizon and different sensitivity analyses. In 2023, all alcohol-attributable harms in Estonia totalled €510.00 million (1.3% of the Gross Domestic Product of Estonia) with €263.91 million direct costs and €246.08 million indirect costs. The proposed availability reductions are expected to yield a net benefit of €6.33 million, whereas a 15% increase in alcohol excise taxation could lower healthcare costs and productivity losses by €1.77 million in addition to increasing tax revenue by €32.27 million. Moreover, the interventions were estimated to lead to substantial reductions in mortality and hospitalizations. In terms of ROI, the availability interventions would result in €15 gained for each euro invested, and the taxation increase in €477 per euro invested, and without revenue in €25 per euro invested. Positive ROI was also shown in all sensitivity analyses. The proposed alcohol control policies for Estonia would not only reduce mortality and morbidity but also bring sizeable gains for each euro invested. Higher ROI for taxation increase compared to availability restrictions was mainly due to the added tax revenue.