Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle

Political feasibility of climate policies hinges on persuading the moderate middle of the electorate. A survey evaluates climate policy preferences across 13 EU countries (n=19,328, Summer 2024), identifying `Conditionals', a crucial faction of moderates whose support shifts across 15 climate measures. Conditionals constitute 33\% of Europeans that are active voters for the dominant centrist and centre-right parties. Simulations indicate that even if currently undecided Conditionals simply moved to support, the number of policies with majority backing would more than double (from 4 to 10). Such changes do seem plausible, as Conditionals' preferences hinge less on fixed ideology or demographics, and rather upon things that policymakers can adjust, policy designs and the perceived cost–benefit balances. Overall, our findings emphasize that climate policy success depends on strategic engagement with diverse, moveable constituencies, where tailoring designs with visible benefits offers a pragmatic route to expand the feasibility frontier.