Decision-Making in Complex Public Sector Systems Strategy, Complexity, and Digital Decision Support

Decision-making in public administration increasingly takes place within environments characterized by uncertainty, institutional constraints, and complex interdependencies. This working paper examines decision-making in complex public sector systems through the lens of complexity theory, strategic analysis, and practitioner-oriented perspectives. It argues that effective public decisions depend less on the accumulation of information or the deployment of advanced technologies than on the capacity of institutions to learn, adapt, and exercise judgment under conditions of uncertainty. The paper explores how strategy functions as an orienting framework rather than a fixed plan, and how digital decision-support tools can enhance situational awareness and institutional learning when designed as enablers of human judgment. By emphasizing incremental interventions, feedback loops, and adaptive governance, the paper contributes to ongoing discussions on resilience, accountability, and decision quality in contemporary public administration.