Multi-Scale and Interpretable Daily Runoff Forecasting with IEWT and ModernTCN

Daily runoff series exhibit high complexity and significant fluctuations, which often lead to large prediction errors and limit the scientific basis of water resource scheduling and management. This study proposes a runoff prediction framework that incorporates upstream–downstream hydrological correlation information and integrates Improved Empirical Wavelet Transform (IEWT), SHAP-based interpretable feature selection, Improved Population-Based Training (IPBT), and the Modern Temporal Convolutional Network (ModernTCN) to enhance forecasting accuracy and model robustness. First, IEWT is employed to perform multi-scale decomposition of the daily runoff sequence, extracting structural features at different temporal scales. Then, upstream–downstream hydrological correlation information is introduced, and the SHAP method is used to evaluate the importance of multi-source basin features, eliminating redundant variables to improve input quality and training efficiency. Finally, IPBT is applied to optimize ModernTCN hyperparameters, thereby constructing a high-performance forecasting model. Case studies at the Hankou station demonstrate that the proposed IPBT-IEWT-SHAP-ModernTCN model significantly outperforms benchmark methods such as LSTM, iTransformer, and TCN in terms of accuracy, stability, and generalization. Specifically, the model achieves a root mean square error of 342.14, a mean absolute error of 251.01, and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.9992. These results indicate that the proposed method can effectively capture the nonlinear correlation characteristics between upstream and downstream hydrological processes, thus providing an efficient and widely adaptable framework for daily runoff prediction and scientific water resources management.