Strategic Shifts or Repeated Mistakes: The Ethiopian Counterinsurgency Approaches in Tigray and Amhara

ABSTRACT: This article employs multi-criteria analysis (MCA) alongside a comparative case study approach to evaluate the effectiveness of counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in Ethiopia, specifically in the Tigray and Amhara regions. By analyzing multiple factors affecting the success of these operations, the study reveals the complexities and shortcomings in the Ethiopian government’s approach. Despite ongoing efforts in Amhara, both COIN campaigns face significant challenges in achieving strategic objectives due to a lack of integration between military actions, governance, and strategic communication. The findings underscore the importance of human rights protection, governance, and public support in ensuring the success of COIN operations. The study highlights the need for a balanced, context-specific approach to counterinsurgency, reinforcing the limitations of one-size-fits-all strategies. Through MCA and comparative case study of the Tigray and Amhara conflicts, the study shows that Ethiopia’s COIN campaigns lacked integration across military, governance, and communication domains. It operationalizes Christopher Paul et al.’s (2010) framework in a new context and offers policy-relevant insights for COIN design in fragile states.