The role of ducks in detecting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in small-scale backyard poultry farms

Previous research efforts on highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI) suggest that different avian species exhibit a varied severity of clinical signs after infection. Waterfowl, such as ducks or geese, can be asymptomatic and act as silent carriers of H5N1, making detection harder and increasing the risk of further transmission, potentially leading to significant economic losses. For backyard hobby farmers, passive reporting is a common HPAI detection strategy. We aim to develop a computational, mechanistic model to quantify the effectiveness of this strategy by simulating the spread of H5N1 in a mixed-species, small-population backyard flock. Quantities such as detection time and undetected burden of infection in various scenarios are compared. Our results indicate that the presence of ducks can lead to a higher risk of an outbreak and a higher burden of infection. If most ducks within a flock are resistant to H5N1, detection can be significantly delayed. We find that within-flock infection dynamics can heavily depend on the species composition in backyard farms. Ducks, in particular, can pose a higher risk of transmission within a flock or between flocks. Our findings can help inform surveillance and intervention strategies at the flock and local levels.