Scaffolding Probabilistic Reasoning in Civil Engineering Education: Integrating AI Tutoring with Simulation-Based Learning

Undergraduate civil engineering students frequently struggle to transition from deterministic to probabilistic reasoning, a conceptual shift essential for modern structural design practice governed by reliability-based codes. This paper presents a design-based research (DBR) contribution and a theoretically grounded pedagogical framework that integrates AI-powered conversational tutoring with interactive simulations to scaffold this transition. The framework synthesizes cognitive load theory, scaffolding principles, self-regulated learning research, and threshold concepts theory. The design incorporates three novel elements: (1) a structured misconception inventory specific to structural reliability, derived from literature and expert elicitation, with each misconception linked to targeted intervention strategies; (2) an integration architecture connecting large language model tutoring with domain-specific simulations, where simulation states inform tutoring and misconception detection triggers targeted activities; and (3) a scaffolded module sequence building systematically from deterministic foundations through probability concepts to reliability analysis methods. Sequential modules progress from uncertainty recognition through Monte Carlo simulation and design applications. We provide technical specifications for the implementation of AI tutoring, including prompt engineering strategies, accuracy safeguards that address known limitations of large language models (LLMs), and protocols for escalation to human instructors. An assessment framework specifies concept inventory items, process measures, and practical competence tasks. Ultimately, this paper provides testable conjectures and identifies conditions under which the framework might fail, structuring subsequent empirical validation with student participants following institutional ethics approval.