GF-NGB: A Graph-Fusion Natural Gradient Boosting Framework for Pavement Roughness Prediction Using Multi-Source Data

Pavement roughness is a critical indicator for road maintenance decisions and driving safety assessment. Existing methods primarily rely on multi-source explicit features, which have limited capability in capturing implicit information such as spatial topology between road segments. Furthermore, their accuracy and stability remain insufficient in cross-regional and small-sample prediction scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a Graph-Fused Natural Gradient Boosting framework (GF-NGB), which combines the spatial topology modeling capability of graph neural networks with the small-sample robustness of natural gradient boosting for high-precision cross-regional roughness prediction. The method first extracts an 18-dimensional set of multi-source features from the U.S. Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database and derives an 8-dimensional set of implicit spatial features using a graph neural network. These features are then concatenated and fed into a natural gradient boosting model, which is optimized by Optuna, to predict the dual objectives of left and right wheel-track roughness. To evaluate the generalization capability of the proposed method, we employ a spatially partitioned data split: the training set includes 1648 segments from Arizona, California, Florida, Ontario, and Missouri, while the test set comprises 330 segments from Manitoba and Nevada with distinct geographic and climatic conditions. Experimental results show that GF-NGB achieves the best performance on cross-regional tests, with average prediction accuracy improved by 1.7% and 3.6% compared to Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost) and a Graph Neural Network–Multilayer Perceptron hybrid model (GNN-MLP), respectively. This study reveals the synergistic effect of multi-source texture features and spatial topology information, providing a generalizable framework and technical pathway for cross-regional, small-sample intelligent pavement monitoring and smart maintenance.