Multidimensional stability assessment and spatial drivers for targeted eco-functional zones on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Functioning as "Asian Water Tower" and a globally ecologically sensitive area, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) holds strategic significance for regional and global ecological security. Consequently, comprehensively assessing its ecological stability (ES) is imperative. To address this, we constructed a multidimensional evaluation framework integrating resilience, resistance, and temporal stability. By synthesizing multi-source datasets (2000-2020) and employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) modeling, this study aims to elucidate the spatial heterogeneity patterns and drivers of ES across the QTP. The results demonstrate that from a holistic perspective, ES of the QTP predominantly exhibited moderate and above levels, with very high concentrated in central-eastern and very low clustered in northeastern regions. Dimensional analysis demonstrated moderate overall resilience, drought resistance, and cold and warmth resistance, whereas temporal stability remained low. Precipitation and altitude emerged as positive natural drivers, while anthropogenic factors including population density, grazing intensity, and secondary industry GDP consistently demonstrated negative effects. From different ecozones, ES and its various indicators vary in rank, and ES, resilience, and resistance are generally at a moderate, while temporal stability is at a relatively low. At the same time, the drivers of each ecozone also vary slightly. Leveraging these heterogeneous driver-response patterns, we delineated six eco-functional zones to inform adapted conservation and restoration strategies. The developed "pattern-mechanism-zoning" framework establishes a scientific paradigm for targeted governance of alpine ecosystems, advancing stability-oriented management through spatially explicit decision support.