Multidimensional Vulnerabilities and Delisting Risk of China’s Agricultural Listed Firms: Implications for Agricultural Industry Resilience and Sustainability

Agricultural listed companies are key nodes in the agricultural industry chain, providing capital, technology and market access to upstream producers and downstream processors. When these firms face delisting risk, the resilience and sustainability of the industry chain are threatened. Using data from 897 observations of Chinese A-share listed companies in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector over 2010–2021, this study links multidimensional firm vulnerability to subsequent delisting risk. We construct 30 internal and external indicators covering financial performance, innovation input, supply chain concentration, government support and market competitiveness. Clustering method is applied to capture heterogeneity in firms’ multidimensional structural, gradient boosting models are used to predict ST (Special Treatment) status within three years, and SHAP analysis is used to identify the main risk. The results show that a small subset of firms with high leverage, tight liquidity, weak profitability, insufficient innovation, and highly concentrated key customers and suppliers accounts for most ST cases. Strengthening capital buffers, diversifying critical supply-chain relationships, and maintaining stable innovation investment are thus crucial for reducing delisting risk and enhancing the resilience of agricultural listed companies.