Institutional leadership and regional contagion: Causal drivers of European research performance in the education sector

Abstract Participation in the European Union’s Framework Programs such as Horizon Europe has become a strategic priority for higher and secondary education (HES) institutions, yet the underlying determinants of funding success remain difficult to disentangle due to persistent endogeneity. It is often unclear whether successful outcomes arise from institutional strategy, regional context, cumulative advantage, or a broader set of structural factors. This study addresses this challenge by applying a structural causal model framework to analyze the performance of HES institutions. Using the DoWhy library to identify causal pathways within observational data, the study investigates three core dimensions: the potential strategic influence of holding the project coordinator role, the presence and nature of regional peer effects across NUTS 3 ecosystems, and the possible function of HES institutions as “anchor institutions” capable of generating wider national-level project spillovers. The analysis includes extensive robustness and refutation testing to ensure causal validity. Overall, the study provides a conceptual and methodological foundation for policymakers and institutional leaders seeking to strengthen administrative capacity, enhance regional clustering, and better understand the causal structures shaping research funding performance.