Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Profitability in Nigeria: Does Oil Price Volatility Deepen the Shock?

Recent studies have focused on the detrimental effects of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm profitability. Nevertheless, none of these studies has focused on a developing economy like Nigeria. To understand this, the study conducted a host of regression analyses using the Driscoll and Kraay fixed-effect estimator and the two-step system generalised method of moments to examine the effects of global crude oil prices and domestic and global economic policy uncertainty on firm profitability in Nigeria from 2005 to 2024. The findings indicate that while global EPU had a minimal impact on firm profitability, domestic EPU had a substantial negative impact. The findings remain consistent even across the sub-samples, sensitivity, and robustness analyses. Furthermore, the findings showed that firm size and capital are significant determinants of profitability for Nigerian firms. At the same time, oil prices and their interactions do not affect firm profitability in Nigeria. The study suggests that regulators in the Nigerian business environment can contribute to building a more resilient environment by implementing systems to monitor critical economic indicators and ensure timely responses to emerging challenges. Systematic evaluations of economic uncertainties, including business sentiment, inflation rates, exchange rates, interest rates, and economic growth, can provide valuable insights for policy formulation and interventions aimed at enhancing the profitability of Nigerian firms.