Assessing post-conflict electric power supply reliability in low voltage distribution networks of Aksum Ethiopia

Conflicts in different regions of the world have had significant consequences on electric power supply appliances. This study was conducted in Ethiopia's Aksum town low-voltage (LV) electric supply lines using reliability indices, including SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI, and EENS, before, during, and after the post-period. Accordingly, the findings indicate that severe reliability problems occurred due to the conflict, which resulted in power interruptions (both forced and operational), infrastructure damage, the displacement of skilled engineers, and inadequate recovery efforts. The study introduced a mixed auditing mechanism, analyzed historical power outage data, and evaluated performance-based reliability indices. Results indicate that before the conflict relatively stable power supply, with manageable outage durations and energy losses. However, during the two-year conflict (2020-2022), the average SAIDI value peaked at 1,626.4 h, the CAIDI flowed to 2,507.31 h, and EENS intensified to 10,480.52 MWh, reflecting significant disruptions. Six months post-conflict, significant recovery efforts improved these metrics, though supply stability challenges persist. The resulting reliability of the post-conflict reliability indices exceeds international benchmarks, with SAIDI over 1-5 h, SAIFI above 0.5, and CAIDI over 5 h. Despite post-conflict improvements, high SAIFI values show supply instability. Strengthen infrastructure, improve maintenance, and enhance auditing for reliable power.