Green Finance and High-Quality Economic Development: Spatial Correlation, Technology Spillover, and Pollution Haven

This study examines how green finance influences high-quality economic development, with a particular focus on its spatial spillover mechanisms. Specifically, we investigate the competing roles of technology spillover and the pollution haven effect. Using provincial panel data from China (2010–2021) and applying a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), we deconstruct the total effect of green finance into three distinct components: the local technological progress effect, the positive technology spillover effect, and the negative pollution haven effect. While acknowledging limitations related to the macro-level data granularity and the indirect nature of the mechanism tests, our analysis yields three main findings. First, green finance development shows significant regional disparities. It has progressed most rapidly in the eastern region, remained relatively stable in the central region, and declined in the western region. Second, green finance exerts a strong positive direct effect on local high-quality economic development. This promoting effect becomes even stronger in more developed regions. Third, green finance generates significant negative spatial spillovers on neighboring regions. These are primarily driven by the pollution haven effect, which involves the cross-regional relocation of polluting industries. However, local technological progress partially mitigates these adverse externalities. Overall, our findings reveal the dual nature of the spatial externalities associated with green finance. They also highlight the urgency of coordinated regional environmental governance to prevent “green leakage” and to promote balanced, high-quality economic development.