Urban Industrial Land Shrinkage in China: Formation Mechanisms, Identification, and Response Strategies

In the context of urban development transforming from external expansion to internal improvement, identifying the patterns and characteristics of urban industrial land shrinkage and proposing response strategies are crucial for achieving high-quality and sustainable urban development. Unlike previous studies that focused on the expansion of industrial land based on absolute changes in land area, we propose a formation mechanism for urban industrial land shrinkage from the perspectives of both absolute and potential shrinkage. We quantitatively identified the Chinese cities that experienced shrinkage between 2006 and 2020, and developed a comprehensive indicator system to investigate the changes in the structural and functional characteristics of industrial land use during this process. The results indicated that urban industrial land shrinkage has become a widespread phenomenon nationwide. Absolute shrinkage was predominantly attributed to resource depletion and a lack of economic development, while potential shrinkage was mainly influenced by high-quality development and a lack of economic development. Cities exhibiting potential shrinkage experienced more severe structural deterioration, while cities with absolute shrinkage faced greater functional degradation. Extensive land use remains a serious challenge that must be addressed in industrial land redevelopment. Finally, we propose that more attention should be given to the utilization of stock urban industrial land, in particular in cities with relatively low administrative levels, small populations, and remote locations. Urban land redevelopment projects need to be conducted in accordance with the principle of intensive land use to promote the sustainable development of cities.