Modélisation et évaluation de la solution agrivoltaïque au nexus climat-eau-énergie-alimentation dans le contexte du changement climatique dans la région euro-méditerranéenne

Climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean(EUROMED) region is increasing pressure on agriculture, notably by heightening land vulnerability andreducing water availability. Agrivoltaics (AV), whichcombines photovoltaic energy production with agriculture on the same land surface, is emerging as akey solution within the water-energy-food-ecosystems(WEFE) nexus. By providing shade, AV reduces heat stress and soil evaporation, thereby improving the microclimate and the resilience of crops. However, itsperformance remains highly dependent on climate,crop type and geographical context, which calls formodelling tools suited to regional scales. To addressthis gap, we develop a regional AV model by integrating a photovoltaic module into the land surfacemodel ORCHIDEE. The model modifies solar radia-tion and wind speed from climate models, then simu-lates energy, water, carbon and nitrogen fluxes to as-sess AV impacts on agricultural soils. In a first ap-plication based on reanalysis data, two contrastingregions are studied : the Iberian Peninsula and the Netherlands. In the drier Iberian Peninsula, AV improves crop yields, food security, resource-use effi-ciency and renewable energy production, especiallyduring drought. It also enhances nitrogen-use efficiency and reduces green house gas emissions. Incontrast, in the Netherlands -wetter and less sunny-AV tends to reduce yields, offering only limited be-nefits. In a second phase, the model is applied tothe entire EUROMED region using EURO-CORDEXprojections under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results show that the benefits of AV depend strongly on regio-nal water and climate conditions. Southern drought-prone areas are the most suitable, while more humid northern regions gain only modest advantages. This innovative, flexible and multi-scale model thus pro-vides a valuable tool to inform public policies aiming for more resilient, low-carbon agriculture and a better-integrated WEFE nexus