Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock?

A synthesis of government and social media data suggests a disruption, possibly tied to events in China.

Authors

Jonathan P. Caulkins (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7748-9989)
Keith Humphreys (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7458-8252)
Harold A. Pollack (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1629-1175)
Kasey Vangelov (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8661-043X)
Peter Reuter

Institutions

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (AT)
University of Chicago (US)
Stanford Medicine (US)
University of Maryland, College Park (US)
Carnegie Mellon University (US)

Publication Details

Journal: Science
Published: 2026-01-08
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aea6130
Citations: 4
Primary Topic: Pharmaceutical Quality and Counterfeiting
Type: article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact: 167.39

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article

Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock?

Jonathan P. Caulkins, Keith Humphreys, Harold A. Pollack, Kasey Vangelov et al.

Jan 8, 2026

4 citations

Science

Pharmaceutical Quality and Counterfeiting

167.39

article

Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock?

Jonathan P. Caulkins, Keith Humphreys, Harold A. Pollack, Kasey Vangelov, Peter Reuter

January 8, 2026article en

4 citations

Abstract

A synthesis of government and social media data suggests a disruption, possibly tied to events in China.

ScienceVol. 391(6781)

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (AT), University of Chicago (US), Stanford Medicine (US), University of Maryland, College Park (US), Carnegie Mellon University (US)

Openalex Percentile: Top 0%

Pharmaceutical Quality and Counterfeiting

167.39

DOI Source OpenAlex

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Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock? — Jonathan P. Caulkins, Keith Humphreys, et al. · Science (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS