Exploring bicycle theft through topography, street centrality, and the built environment: a spatial analysis of Toronto, Canada

Abstract Although bicycle theft is a common issue across many urban cities, the empirical evidence of bicycle theft patterns is sparse, in particular within Canada. Existing studies have primarily focused on the built environment, while largely overlooking the potential influence of topography and street centrality. Drawing on principles from environmental criminology, this study explores the spatial distribution of reported bicycle theft in Toronto, Canada, between 2014 and 2024 ( n = 37,318) across three spatial scales. Measures of spatial access were used to capture both the proximity and availability of select built environment features, alongside street centrality and topographical elements. Findings indicate that both street elevation and hilliness were negatively associated with bicycle theft, suggesting that streets at higher elevation and in more hilly areas experience fewer theft. Several infrastructure-related features, including public transportation stops, bikeshare stations, and bicycle lanes, also emerged as consistent predictors of theft, while street centrality, slope, and parks were not significant. Bicycle parking facilities and universities were only predictive at the smallest spatial scale. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating topography into bicycle theft research, as these factors may shape offender decision making, target accessibility, and perceived effort.