Concerned, but not impressed: China eyes NATO's engagement in the Asia–Pacific

Abstract This article examines how Chinese observers perceive NATO's engagement in the Asia–Pacific region. While officials portray NATO as an increasing threat to China, Chinese analysts and scholars are ambivalent about NATO's ability to impact Chinese security. Analysing writings published between 2022 and 2025, we find three broad patterns. First, observers in China see NATO's policies as part of a broader US containment strategy, and express concern about that strategy's impact on China's political ties to Europe. Second, many argue that European allies' limited capabilities and a lack of alliance cohesion constrain NATO's efforts to play a role in the Asia–Pacific. Third, Chinese analysts advocate for wedge strategies, calling for China to exploit transatlantic divisions through economic inducements and diplomatic engagement with Europe. Under a second Trump presidency, Chinese analysts anticipate that the transatlantic rift will widen further, undermining NATO's efforts to play a role in the Asia–Pacific. Our findings underscore how a firmly rooted realpolitik perspective permeates Chinese debates: NATO's engagement is frequently analysed in balance-of-power terms in these debates, and observers regard European states' lack of hard power as a fundamental weakness.