Operational Convection‐Permitting COSMO/ICON Ensemble Predictions at Observation Sites ( CIENS )

We present the CIENS dataset, which contains ensemble weather forecasts from the operational convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service. It comprises forecasts for 55 meteorological variables mapped to the locations of synoptic stations, as well as additional spatially aggregated forecasts from surrounding grid points, available for a subset of these variables. Forecasts are available at hourly lead times from 0 to 21 h for two daily model runs initialised at 00 and 12 UTC, covering the period from December 2010 to June 2023. Additionally, the dataset provides station observations for six key variables at 170 locations across Germany: pressure, temperature, hourly precipitation accumulation, wind speed, wind direction, and wind gusts. Since the forecasts are mapped to the observed locations, the data is delivered in a convenient format for analysis. The CIENS dataset complements the growing collection of benchmark datasets for weather and climate modelling. A key distinguishing feature is its long temporal extent, which encompasses multiple updates to the underlying numerical weather prediction model and thus supports investigations into how forecasting methods can account for such changes. In addition to detailing the design and contents of the CIENS dataset, we outline potential applications in ensemble post-processing, forecast verification, and related research areas. A use case focused on ensemble post-processing illustrates the benefits of incorporating the rich set of available model predictors into machine learning-based forecasting models.

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Publication Details

Journal
Repository KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
Published
2026-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000189407
Primary Topic
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Operational Convection‐Permitting COSMO/ICON Ensemble Predictions at Observation Sites ( CIENS )

Benedikt Schulz, Reinhold Hess, S. Trepte, Susanne Theis et al.
Repository KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
article

Operational Convection‐Permitting COSMO/ICON Ensemble Predictions at Observation Sites ( CIENS )

Benedikt Schulz, Reinhold Hess, S. Trepte, Susanne Theis, Annette Möller, Cristina Primo, Sebastian Lerch
article en

Abstract

We present the CIENS dataset, which contains ensemble weather forecasts from the operational convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service. It comprises forecasts for 55 meteorological variables mapped to the locations of synoptic stations, as well as additional spatially aggregated forecasts from surrounding grid points, available for a subset of these variables. Forecasts are available at hourly lead times from 0 to 21 h for two daily model runs initialised at 00 and 12 UTC, covering the period from December 2010 to June 2023. Additionally, the dataset provides station observations for six key variables at 170 locations across Germany: pressure, temperature, hourly precipitation accumulation, wind speed, wind direction, and wind gusts. Since the forecasts are mapped to the observed locations, the data is delivered in a convenient format for analysis. The CIENS dataset complements the growing collection of benchmark datasets for weather and climate modelling. A key distinguishing feature is its long temporal extent, which encompasses multiple updates to the underlying numerical weather prediction model and thus supports investigations into how forecasting methods can account for such changes. In addition to detailing the design and contents of the CIENS dataset, we outline potential applications in ensemble post-processing, forecast verification, and related research areas. A use case focused on ensemble post-processing illustrates the benefits of incorporating the rich set of available model predictors into machine learning-based forecasting models.

Repository KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
Philipps-Universität Marburg, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Vector Stiftung, Scheme for Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 95%
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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