Does Digital Trade Development Promote Environmental Sustainability? Spatial Spillovers and Pollution Displacement in China

To address climate change and advance environmental sustainability in the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action), China has actively promoted digital trade development under its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. However, whether digital trade contributes to environmental improvement, and through which mechanisms it does this, remains an open empirical question. This study examines whether and how digital trade development affects environmental pollution in China, with particular emphasis on spatial spillover effects and underlying mechanisms. Using provincial panel data from 2009 to 2023, we employ a spatial Durbin model combined with a mediation analysis framework. The results show that digital trade development has increased steadily in China and significantly reduces local environmental pollution, indicating a clear green effect. The spatial Durbin model shows that the environmental benefits of digital trade are unevenly distributed across space, with pollution reductions in core regions accompanied by increased emissions in neighboring areas. Further mechanism analysis indicates that industrial structure upgrading and consumption structure transformation are key channels through which digital trade development improves environmental sustainability. These findings provide important insights for coordinating digital trade expansion with regional environmental governance and low-carbon transition strategies.