Global Warming Drives the Adaptive Distribution and Landscape Fragmentation of Neosinocalamus affinis Forests in China

Compared with other forest vegetation, bamboo forests have a stronger carbon sequestration capacity, which plays a vital role in achieving the national goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Global warming has profoundly impacted the adaptive distribution and landscape fragmentation of bamboo forests. This study utilized an optimized MaxEnt model to calculate the current habitat range of Neosinocalamus affinis (Rendle) Keng f. forests across China and project their potential distribution under three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) for the 2050s and 2090s and analyzed the landscape fragmentation of their land use using landscape indices. The results reveal that Neosinocalamus affinis forests are currently primarily distributed in Chongqing Municipality, eastern and southeastern Sichuan Province, and northern Guizhou Province. The key environmental factors influencing their distribution are identified as: mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), and precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16). Across the three future scenarios, the suitable habitat area for Neosinocalamus affinis forests demonstrates an overall expanding trend. Rising CO2 concentrations correlate with a reduction in suitable habitat. The habitat centroid shifts southward in the 2050s and northeastward in the 2090s. In the future, the fragmentation degree of highly suitable areas for Neosinocalamus affinis forests will be higher than at present and show an increasing trend, with forest fragmentation significantly intensifying and overall landscape quality further declining. The predictive results of this study provide a scientific basis for the effective conservation and management of Neosinocalamus affinis forests, thereby contributing to the sustainable utilization of bamboo forest resources.