Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Territorial Space Conflicts Under the Orientation of Carbon Neutrality in Jiangsu Province, China

Measuring and simulating territorial space conflicts (TSCs) for the achievement of carbon neutrality is of critical significance for formulating regional sustainable utilization of territorial resources that are inherently green and low-carbon. This study develops a TSC evaluation framework: “conflict identification–scenario simulation–carbon effect assessment”. Focusing on Jiangsu Province, we clarify the evolutionary mechanism of TSCs under carbon neutrality goals, providing a scientific basis for high-quality regional development and low-carbon spatial governance. Results show that Jiangsu’s average TSC level was categorized as “strong conflict” (0.66) during 2005–2020. For 2030, four scenarios (natural development, economic priority, ecological protection, low-carbon development) project TSCs shifting from scattered to point-like distribution, concentrating in key core areas. Corresponding projected average carbon neutrality indices are 1.10, 1.11, 1.33, and 1.11, respectively. Under the low-carbon scenario, grid units with serious TSCs decreased by 4.53% compared to 2020—higher than natural development and economic priority scenarios, but lower than the ecological protection scenario (12.45%). Consequently, the low-carbon development scenario can optimally mitigate land use conflicts while maintaining carbon balance. This research provides robust data support for Jiangsu’s sustainable coordinated development and informs efficient land use and regional ecological security.