Unlocking decarbonisation in hard-to-abate sectors: A quantile-based comparative techno-economic analysis of e-fuel pathways

Power-to-X (P2X) including electrolytic hydrogen and e-fuels is a promising solution to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors, such as long-distance transportation and chemical feedstocks, while it remains unclear whether these pathways are techno-economically feasible in current markets. This work conducts a comparative techno-economic analysis of four P2X pathways (hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and methane), based on generic techno-economic quantile models, including three quantiles (<i>Q</i>₁-25 %: Optimistic, <i>Q</i>₂-50 %: Average, and <i>Q</i>₃-75 %: Pessimistic) of parameters such as conversion efficiency, unit capital cost, and lifetime, as well as co-optimisation framework that optimises installed capacities and hourly flexible operation strategies, aiming to achieve the lowest levelised cost of x -fuel (LCOX). The profitability of each pathway is analysed using a profitability index (PI), defined as the ratio of market prices in trading locations to the sum of LCOX and transportation costs. A case study in Ordos, China shows that, in 2024, the mass-based and energy-based LCOXs of hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and methane across all scenarios are 2.2–7.1, 0.5–1.8, 0.65–2.1, and 1.8–5.5 EUR/kg (67–212, 103–344, 117–375, and 130–399 EUR/MWh), respectively, with the LCOXs decreasing by 44 %–67 % from <i>Q</i>₃-Pessimistic to <i>Q</i>₁-Optimistic. In <i>Q</i>₁-Optimistic and <i>Q</i>₂-Average scenarios, the hydrogen pathway is profitable in all considered locations owing to emerging hydrogen markets in China, with PIs of 1.44–1.73 and 1.05–1.25, respectively. However, none of the ammonia, methanol, or methane pathway is profitable, as their current fossil-based market prices are significantly lower than the LCOXs derived from electrolytic hydrogen feedstock.