Data-driven development stage division method of new power system balancing based on E-TOPSIS-L model

• Develops an evaluation index system for new power system balancing. • Proposes an E-TOPSIS-L model to assess system balancing stages. • Results indicate maturity around 2025 and saturation near 2060. The long-term development stages division of new power system balancing is crucial preliminary research that guides the development of the system. The development of system balancing is influenced by various factors, including technology, policy, and economy. However, existing research tends to evaluate these factors separately. Hence, this study proposes a development stage division method for new power system balancing that comprehensively considers multiple factors to assess the level of development and predict the inflection points of the development stages. First, the method analyses the factors from various dimensions, including technology, policy, economy and balance and establishes an evaluation index system. Then, an entropy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution-logistic(E-TOPSIS-L) development stage division model is constructed, comprehensively considering multiple factors to predict future inflection points and avoiding the drawbacks of the traditional logistic model that can only fit a single variable. The logistic model fitting results show a root mean squared error of 0.0397 and standard error of 0.0086, indicating a good fitting result. Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method are validated, with the system balancing maturity forecasted to occur by 2025 and saturation by 2060.