Drug shortage in South Korea: machine learning-based prediction models and analysis of duration and causal factors

The KMFDS should continuously monitor drugs with repeated shortage episodes through regular reporting, early-warning systems, and supply-risk assessments. Incorporating supply-side indicators-particularly those related to economic feasibility-into national surveillance programs may help prevent shortages and mitigate their duration. By identifying key predictors associated with shortage causes, this study provides evidence to guide policy prioritization and targeted interventions.