Beyond Blame: Migration's Limited Role in Madagascar's Deforestation

ABSTRACT Worldwide, more people are migrating to the forest frontier, significantly altering land use in smallholder farming communities, yet there is limited empirical evidence on the environmental impacts of this migration. The common assumption is that migrants disproportionately contribute to resource degradation. In this study, we investigate if migration drives deforestation in Madagascar, using national census data, global land cover datasets, and qualitative insights from drought‐affected migrant‐sending and forest‐margin migrant‐receiving areas. Quantitative analysis showed no evidence of spatial overlap between net positive in‐migration and forest loss, and only a marginally significant negative relationship between in‐migration and forest cover for extreme in‐migration. The qualitative findings suggested that while in‐migrants may sometimes access lands through clearing forestlands, they were no more likely than local people to clear land. These results challenge narratives of migrants as primary drivers of environmental degradation and highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of migration–environment interactions.