Post-earthquake recovery in coastal cities of Manabí, Ecuador: A regional assessment nine years after the 2016 Muisne earthquake

• 2016 Mw7.8 Pedernales quake caused 671 deaths and USD 3.6B in losses. • Robustness improved via NEC-15 and hospitals with isolation and damping. • 49 % of 97 surveyed buildings remain unreinforced and at seismic risk. • Recovery faster in Manta–Portoviejo, slower in Pedernales–Chone. • Gaps persist in equity, governance, and digital monitoring of recovery. In April 2016, a moment magnitude ( Mw ) 7.8 earthquake struck near Muisne (Pedernales), Ecuador, causing 671 fatalities, displacing >30,000 people, and generating approximately USD 3.6 billion in economic losses that severely impacted the coastal province of Manabí. Nine years later, the recovery trajectory of its principal urban centers—Pedernales, Manta, Portoviejo, and Chone—offers a critical perspective to assess adaptive resilience in earthquake-prone coastal cities of Latin America. This study conducts a regional assessment of post-earthquake recovery using the 4Rs resilience framework—robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity—applied across housing, health, education, infrastructure, and economic sectors. Official reports, statistical databases, and field validations collected between 2016 and 2025 provide the basis for documenting both progress and persistent challenges. The findings indicate that robustness improved with the enforcement of the Ecuadorian seismic code NEC-15 and the adoption of advanced technologies such as base isolation and supplemental damping in hospitals and high-rise buildings. Redundancy expanded selectively, being stronger in healthcare yet limited in housing and utilities. Resourcefulness varied across cities: municipal leadership and civic oversight in Manta and Portoviejo facilitated adaptive recovery, whereas Pedernales and Chone remained dependent on central agencies. Rapidity was similarly uneven; lifeline services were restored promptly, but complex projects—including hospitals, sewer systems, and residential complexes—faced delays of five to nine years. Structural assessments of 97 buildings revealed that nearly half remain without reinforcement, with recurrent deficiencies such as soft-story mechanisms, brittle masonry infill, and reinforcement corrosion sustaining latent seismic risk. Governance fragmentation, equity gaps, and insufficient monitoring thus emerged as critical barriers, underscoring the need for integrated governance, community participation, and AI-enabled monitoring to strengthen long-term disaster recovery in coastal cities.

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Journal
Resilient Cities and Structures
Published
2026-01-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcns.2025.12.006
Primary Topic
Disaster Management and Resilience
Type
article
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article

Post-earthquake recovery in coastal cities of Manabí, Ecuador: A regional assessment nine years after the 2016 Muisne earthquake

Roberto Rodrigo Aguiar, Brian Cagua
Resilient Cities and Structures
Disaster Management and Resilience
article

Post-earthquake recovery in coastal cities of Manabí, Ecuador: A regional assessment nine years after the 2016 Muisne earthquake

Roberto Rodrigo Aguiar, Brian Cagua
article en

Abstract

• 2016 Mw7.8 Pedernales quake caused 671 deaths and USD 3.6B in losses. • Robustness improved via NEC-15 and hospitals with isolation and damping. • 49 % of 97 surveyed buildings remain unreinforced and at seismic risk. • Recovery faster in Manta–Portoviejo, slower in Pedernales–Chone. • Gaps persist in equity, governance, and digital monitoring of recovery. In April 2016, a moment magnitude ( Mw ) 7.8 earthquake struck near Muisne (Pedernales), Ecuador, causing 671 fatalities, displacing >30,000 people, and generating approximately USD 3.6 billion in economic losses that severely impacted the coastal province of Manabí. Nine years later, the recovery trajectory of its principal urban centers—Pedernales, Manta, Portoviejo, and Chone—offers a critical perspective to assess adaptive resilience in earthquake-prone coastal cities of Latin America. This study conducts a regional assessment of post-earthquake recovery using the 4Rs resilience framework—robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity—applied across housing, health, education, infrastructure, and economic sectors. Official reports, statistical databases, and field validations collected between 2016 and 2025 provide the basis for documenting both progress and persistent challenges. The findings indicate that robustness improved with the enforcement of the Ecuadorian seismic code NEC-15 and the adoption of advanced technologies such as base isolation and supplemental damping in hospitals and high-rise buildings. Redundancy expanded selectively, being stronger in healthcare yet limited in housing and utilities. Resourcefulness varied across cities: municipal leadership and civic oversight in Manta and Portoviejo facilitated adaptive recovery, whereas Pedernales and Chone remained dependent on central agencies. Rapidity was similarly uneven; lifeline services were restored promptly, but complex projects—including hospitals, sewer systems, and residential complexes—faced delays of five to nine years. Structural assessments of 97 buildings revealed that nearly half remain without reinforcement, with recurrent deficiencies such as soft-story mechanisms, brittle masonry infill, and reinforcement corrosion sustaining latent seismic risk. Governance fragmentation, equity gaps, and insufficient monitoring thus emerged as critical barriers, underscoring the need for integrated governance, community participation, and AI-enabled monitoring to strengthen long-term disaster recovery in coastal cities.

Resilient Cities and StructuresVol. 5(1)
Universidad de Los Andes, Chile (CL), Universidad Técnica de Manabí (EC), Secretaría de Educación Superior, Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (EC)
Openalex Percentile: Top 94%
Disaster Management and Resilience
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