Land surface model underperformance tied to specific meteorological conditions

Abstract. The exchange of carbon, water, and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere plays a vital role in shaping global change and extreme events. Yet our understanding of the theory of this surface-atmosphere exchange, represented via land surface models (LSMs), continues to be limited, highlighted by marked biases in model-data benchmarking exercises. Here, we leveraged the PLUMBER2 dataset of observations and model simulations of terrestrial sensible heat, latent heat, and net ecosystem exchange fluxes from 153 international eddy-covariance sites to identify the meteorological conditions under which land surface models are performing worse than independent benchmark expectations. By defining performance relative to three sophisticated out-of-sample empirical models, we generated a lower bound of performance in turbulent flux prediction that can be achieved with the input information available to the land surface models during testing at flux tower sites. We found that land surface model performance relative to empirical models is worse at edge conditions – that is, LSMs underperform in timesteps where the meteorological conditions consist of coinciding relative extreme values. Conversely, LSMs perform much better under “typical” conditions within the centre of the meteorological variable distributions. Constraining analysis to exclude the edge conditions results in the LSMs outperforming strong empirical benchmarks. Encouragingly, we show that refinement of the performance of land surface models in these edge conditions, consisting of only 12 %–31 % of all site-timesteps, would see large improvements (22 %–114 %) in an aggregated performance metric. Better performance in the edge conditions could see mean relative improvements in the aggregated metric of 77 % for the latent heat flux, 48 % for the sensible heat flux, and 36 % for the net ecosystem exchange on average across all LSMs and sites. Precise targeting of model development towards these meteorological edge conditions offers a fruitful avenue to focus model development, ensuring future improvements have the greatest impact.