Prediction models developed using artificial intelligence: similar predictive performances with highly varying predictions for individuals – an illustration in deep vein thrombosis

Prediction models developed with different modeling techniques yielded very different individuals' outcome probabilities, even though the models had similar discriminative performance in this low-dimensional setting. Part of this variation can be explained by differences in calibration but also from modelling choices as estimated risks also differed for modelling techniques with similar calibration performance. Hence, our findings highlight the impact of the choice of modelling techniques on model performance, individual estimated probabilities and consequently the impact of that choice on risk-based clinical decision making.