Surface Runoff Responses to Forest Thinning in Semi-Arid Oak–Pine Micro-Catchments of Northern Mexico

Hydrological behavior plays a critical role in seasonally dry forest ecosystems, as it underpins water availability for multiple productive activities, including forestry, agriculture, grazing, and urban supply. This study evaluated the hydrological effects of thinning treatments in a semi-arid oak–pine forest of Chihuahua, Mexico, using a Before–After–Control–Impact (BACI) design. Three Micro-catchments (MC) with initially comparable tree density and canopy cover were monitored during the rainy seasons of 2018 (pre-thinning) and 2019 (post-thinning). Thinning treatments were applied at 20% and 60% canopy cover in two MC, while a third remained unthinned as a 100% control. Precipitation and surface runoff were recorded at the event scale, and data were analyzed using Weibull probability models with a log link to capture the frequency and magnitude of runoff events. Precipitation patterns were broadly comparable across years, although 2018 included an extreme storm event (59 mm). In contrast, runoff volumes in 2019 were lower despite marginally higher seasonal rainfall, reflecting the absence of large storms. Statistical modeling indicated that for each additional millimeter of precipitation, mean runoff increased by approximately 12%, although thinning significantly altered baseline conditions. Relative to 2018, mean runoff ratios were 0.087 in the 100% canopy catchment, 0.296 in the 60% treatment, and 0.348 in the 20% treatment, suggesting that reduced canopy cover retained proportionally more runoff than the control. BACI contrasts confirmed that thinned catchments maintained higher proportions of runoff than the unthinned control, although statistical significance was marginal for the 20% canopy treatment. Overall, the study provides ecohydrological insights relevant to the management of semi-arid forest ecosystems.