Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics and Their Association with Fire in Indigenous Territories of Maranhão, Brazil (1985–2023)

The protection of Indigenous Territories - ITs in the state of Maranhão, located in the Northeast region of Brazil, represents a major challenge at the intersection of environmental conservation and territorial rights. Situated between the Amazon and Cerrado biomes and within the MATOPIBA agricultural frontier, the state faces increasing anthropogenic pressures that accelerate land use changes, intensify fire regimes, and increase greenhouse gas emissions. This study assessed the temporal dynamics of land use and land cover and their relationship with fire in officially recognized Indigenous Territories from 1985 to 2023 using remote sensing, geoprocessing, and spatial analysis in Google Earth Engine. Indigenous Territories lost 185,327 ha of native vegetation, of which 66.9% corresponded to forest and 33.1% to savanna, yet still retained 2028.755 ha in 2023, with 81.2% classified as forest. Fire recurrence reached up to 37 events per pixel, with Araribóia, Kanela, and Porquinhos dos Canela Apãnjekra exhibiting the highest frequencies. During the 2015–2016 El Niño, Araribóia recorded the largest fire episode, with 200,652 ha burned (48.5%). Between 2013 and 2023, total greenhouse gas emissions reached approximately 709 Mt CO2eq, with 85% originating from fires and 15% from deforestation. The findings highlight the need to integrate traditional knowledge, territorial governance, and Integrated Fire Management strategies to strengthen the protection of Indigenous Territories and support the preservation of Indigenous livelihoods in Maranhão.