Stuck in place? Intergenerational occupational mobility in Türkiye

Abstract This study analyzes intergenerational occupational mobility in Türkiye using 2021 Family Structure Survey data (N = 13,076). Applying mobility matrices, Altham's statistics, and rank-rank correlations across four birth cohorts (1951 1994), we separate structural economic change from genuine social fluidity. Results reveal a stark divergence. While absolute mobility rose significantly due to de-agrarianization and service-sector expansion, relative mobility stagnated or declined after controlling for these shifts. This implies a "compositional illusion" economic transformation created movement without improving equality of opportunity. We identify "asymmetric permeability": a "sticky top" where the children of professionals are protected by a "glass oor," and a "slippery bottom" where origins in agricultural or low-status positions lead primarily to manual labor. The analysis uncovers profound heterogeneity. Mobility is highly gendered, with daughters facing stronger status persistence than sons, and spatially fractured. Econometric results confirm education as the key engine for upward mobility, while paternal education buffer against social descent. JEL Classification: J31, J24, D31, J21, O15