Critical minerals and the energy transition

The climate crisis requires a transition from a fossil-fuel energy system to renewable energy which is heavily reliant on the so-called critical minerals. Both sets of resources are finite/non-renewable and have been widely used for generations. Previous energy related studies have identified the increasing energy cost of exploiting fossil fuels (i.e. reducing Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI)), and several minerals related papers examine potential future scarcity of various minerals. The purpose of the study presented here is to combine both topics to identify whether declining fossil fuel EROI and/or the declining ore grade of critical minerals will constrain the energy transition. A system dynamics model was developed to simulate various energy transition scenarios and the associated additional production energy required as the resources decline in quality to 2100. The study uses four of the IEA's critical minerals as a proxy for demand more generally, namely copper (Cu), cobalt (Co), zinc (Zn) and molybdenum (Mo). The results indicate that with ambitious growth in renewables, the depletion of mineral resources will lead to unacceptably high production energy requirements some time in the latter half of this century or early in the next. If fossil fuels continue to be retained in the energy mix at high levels, production of oil and gas resources will likely become constrained later this century. • The 21st century energy transition requires a massive increase in the production of so-called critical minerals. • The stocks of both fossil fuels and minerals are depleting and require more energy to produce. • The additional production energy required will constrain the durability of the energy transition.